USA Today’s ongoing election blog just reported that “things look good” in terms of smoothness of voting in Ohio. This bodes well for the estimated 80% voter turnout that CNN reported as well, citing Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner who definitely deserves a vacation after all of this is over.
But really, is it all over after today (or maybe tomorrow)? In truth, it has only just begun–and Ohio is the state to watch in determining just whose administration we’re talking about.
Matthew Segal wrote an eloquent piece in today’s Huffington Post on the impact and central role of college-age voters in this election and politics in general. A graduate of Kenyon College in Ohio and founder/executive director of S.A.V.E. (Student Association for Voter Empowerment), Segal explains simply and clearly that college students’ passion and enthusiam set them apart from the rest of the population:
“2. Students not only care about their college communities, but also give tremendous service to them: I know from my experience at Kenyon College in Gambier, OH that students leave an indelible mark on their communities. Whether through tutoring children; bringing local farm products into campus cafeterias; or cleaning area parks, roads, and forest preserves; college students invest heavily in their school environments.”
With this in mind, we turn now to an article by Sophia Yan in a recent edition of The Oberlin Review, the college newspaper of Oberlin College in Ohio. Issues such as vote caging and Ohio’s 20 electoral votes have greatly impacted Oberlin students’ decisions regarding where they vote:
“Work at the grassroots level, through groups such as OPIRG and the Oberlin College Democrats, both part of the non-partisan Student Voter Coalition, has also affected voter registration. Colorado resident and College senior Jamey Arent decided to vote in Ohio after coming to Oberlin. Because he did not turn 18 until after the 2004 election, Arent had never been registered in Colorado to begin with. Early on in his Oberlin career, he was approached in the Wilder mailroom about registering. He said, “All the buzz about the importance of Ohio in 2004…partially influenced my decision.”
This year, College senior David Gutherz decided to vote early in Ohio; he expressed concern about voter fraud with absentee ballots. Gutherz, who hails from Virginia, has voted there in previous elections. He is “hoping it makes a difference” this time around.
The 2008 presidential election has drawn voters from every corner of the United States, and eyes from around the world are trained on what’s happening. Such attention has led to both media and public scrutiny of the election process, and some people still feel that the process is problematic.”
College students have and will undoubtedly continue to play a central role in the politics of this country and it is clear from these distinct yet related articles just how great their influence will be this coming Tuesday.
The Plain Dealer reported online that Obama trumps McCain in a 49% to 46% in a recent poll. What really caught my attention, however, was the reference to fact that Ohio has only been “wrong” in Presidential elections TWICE in the past 108 years. The report emphasizes, however, that this recent poll is in no way a done deal for either side:
“Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the institute [Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati], says Obama has an edge, but the highly charged race and partisan electorate make the contest similar to the unpredictable one four years ago.
“It is very possible that 2008 could be a repeat of 2004 when the race for Ohio was decided by just two percentage points,” he said.
The campaign in Ohio, which has been marked by negative television advertising and harsh rhetoric, is also potentially volatile because 11 percent of voters surveyed said they might change their minds. Just 3 percent remain undecided.
Both campaigns and special interest groups are trying to sway these voters by flooding them with last-minute negative messages in the mail.”
108 years, people. That’s an incredibly strong history and we have a little over a week to see whether this election will continue the trend or mark “wrong choice” number three.
As if we needed more proof that Ohio is the state to watch in the next 11 days, Politico.com reported today that while McCain and Obama are more or less tied in Florida, Obama has moved into the lead in our favorite Buckeye state. The article breaks it down a little according to county (especially the contended Franklin County) and gender:
“Obama’s lead in Franklin County comes in large part from his strength among male voters, Towery said.
“[McCain’s] doing worse with males than he’s doing with females, and Obama’s picking up the lion’s share of independents in this particular county.”
Franklin County women currently prefer Obama, 48 percent to 44 percent. Among men, Obama leads by a surprising, 15-point margin, 53 percent to 38 percent.
“This is not good news for John McCain,” Towery said. “This county is just so representative of what’s going on in Ohio.”
McCain’s performance among men is stronger statewide. He trails Obama by 7 points among men, 42 percent to 49 percent, rather than by 15 points as in Franklin County. Obama currently leads among female voters in Ohio, 54 percent to 42 percent.
“If [McCain] can’t do something about that male percentage he’s a dead duck in Ohio,” Towery said.
In 2004, President George W. Bush won male voters in Ohio, 52 percent to 47 percent, and tied among female voters.
As Election Day draws closer, both presidential tickets have zeroed in on Ohio and Florida as possible keys to victory, and both have spent time campaigning in those states in recent days.”
Although the bottom line will not depend on male versus female, it is interesting to see the poll results broken down in this way. As poll analyst Towery said, McCain is a “dead duck” if he can’t close the gap in male voter preference in the next 11 days.
Time will tell…but not that much, we’ve’ got just over a week to go!
CNN reported today about the town of Chillicothe, Ohio, which it aptly (sort-of) describes as “the bellwether town inside the bellwether state” because the town has so often swung the way of the rest of the state when it comes to presidential elections. The town is reportedly split on the so-old-it’s-age-old Obama-McCain issue. From the article:
“Obama’s troops are trying to make inroads among the population of 22,000 that went for George Bush in the past two elections, and team McCain is working to keep the county red.
Right now, people say the town is divided — and so are the predictions.”
The article quotes a few Chillicothe citizens, one of whom commented that he might not vote at all. I wish that I could sit down with this Mike Milburn fellow and have a little chat because this is what I would say:
Mike, I know that things look tough. As the article on CNN.com notes, you live paycheck to paycheck to support your family and I know that this is no way to live. I also know that the past politics do not give you much reason to believe that one candidate over the other is going to dramatically change your life for the better. But by choosing not to act on your civic right (or duty, as many might say) to vote, you simply throw away your most basic form of political and social agency. I don’t even care who you vote for. Sure, I’d much prefer that you vote for Obama and we can talk later about why he’s the right candidate for the job and for striving to solve the challenges that you face, but right now all I care about is you and your rights and responsibilities as an American citizen. Not only do you have the right to vote, but you get to vote in a state that could very well decide the entire election. Just do it, Mike. What have you got to lose? I’ll tell you what–the right that so many people in the world wish they could have, which is the fundamental right to participate even on the most basic level in what defines democracy. Remember those retro “I want you to vote” signs with Uncle Sam pointing at you? Well I don’t know how old your kids are or whether or not they’re aware of what’s going on, but deep down, I think that they want you to vote, Mike. They want you to vote for their futures, so why throw that chance away?
Ay, I may have gotten off-topic. But the point is, the CNN article linked above demonstrates that this election has gotten so close that we are literally at the point of examining and analyzing a town of 22, 000 individuals. So take it away, Chillicothe, and show us what you’ve got.
Also:
Check out this additional coverage of Chillicothe’s significance on another Ohio politics blog, part of Cincinnati.com. Props to political writer Howard Wilkinson for his report!
As of 2006, a little more than half of the Ohio population is female, a fact that really isn’t too interesting or notable except when we remember (did we ever forget?) that Ohio is the swingiest of the swing states right now. Consequently, every detail counts when it comes to analyzing the demographics of the state. Reporter for The Plain Dealer Karen Sandstrom asked women voters to share what they really want when it comes to the election. Typical issues like the economy and the war dominate their commentary, which leads me to my next question–what do we accomplish by focusing on groups like “women” (which, I would also argue, is not as specific as it wants to be)? What we learn here is that these women have the same interests as the general population. Take this tidbit for example:
“The war also looms for women whose concerns about international politics include the perception that the United States has squandered the good will of American allies. Sue Kaiser believes the U.S. has “totally alienated” much of the rest of the world in recent years.”
The war looms for women? Does it intentionally bypass men? Why should we box people into little squares of identity and act like they must inherently have a vested and passionate interest in something just because they’re women, or black, or from Ohio, or a black woman from Ohio. Sure we can learn from it, but acting like basic facets of our identities is all that matters is extremely limiting. What gives? Think about it.
A recent post on the blog that The Plain Dealer notes that not quite as many people have turned out for early voting in Ohio as previously thought–“steady traffic but no long lines” is how reporter Mark Naymik put it. Perhaps we were ahead of ourselves to assume that all of the controversy and discussion of early voting actually meant that so many people would do so. I know that the only reason I vote via absentee ballot is because I’m attending school on the opposite side of the country–if I lived in the same district in which I were registered, it would be worth whatever minor hassles cropped up to just go and vote on Election Day like (theoretically) everybody else.
The online article also discussed Obama’s heavy “street campaign” to turn out the vote in Ohio, which includes a free concert by the one and only Bruce Springsteen at Ohio State University. McCain does not appear to be campaigning so overtly, which suggests that he accepts defeat in the Buckeye State where polls show that Obama is ahead of McCain by 8% of those polled.
30 more days…
An insightful article by Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman in The Huffington Post today discusses the continuation of the controversy regarding voting and vote caging in Ohio. The issue in Ohio, as they point out, will not be resolved until after the election, which leaves us in a terrifying situation in which many people will not be able to vote even though they thought that they were registered and ready to go. Check out this bit of the article that hit me the hardest:
“More than 300,000 Ohio voters were disenfranchised in the run-up to 2004, and at least 170,000 have since been eliminated in Franklin County alone. Many citizens who believe they are registered may not be.”
Many citizens who believe they are registered may not be?!?!? I’m sorry, but I don’t think that it’s too much to ask that our government do its best to facilitate voting, the cornerstone of democracy, not prevent it for so many voters.
The Help America Vote Act does its share in this post-2000 debacle country to make voting accessible, but we still have a long way to go before I’d say that we are a legitmate democracy again. Even so, check out this article by Bradley A. Blakeman on Politico.com that discusses get out the (early) vote activities in swing states like Ohio. It’s on!
Putting the OH! back in Ohio 